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By Jessica Thakur, December 05, 2024
Despite recent headlines about record-high migration figures, Australia remains significantly behind its pre-pandemic migration trajectory, according to a new study by the Australian National University (ANU).
The research, led by Alan Gamlen, director of ANU’s migration hub, revealed a shortfall of 82,000 people in net overseas migration compared to pre-Covid projections. Prior to the pandemic, net migration was expected to reach 300,000 by 2025. However, using Australian Bureau of Statistics data, the study found that between 2019 and 2024, Australia’s population grew by 168,000 fewer people than anticipated.
Pandemic Disruptions Still Loom Large
The deficit was attributed to a combination of pandemic-related factors. During Australia’s lockdowns, 508,000 fewer people arrived in the country. While a post-lockdown rebound added 340,000 migrants by March 2024, with an additional 86,000 expected by mid-2025, these gains have not offset the earlier losses.
“This … method suggests that, by the time migration returns to ‘normal,’ Australia will have accumulated a … shortfall of 82,000 [people] over five-plus years of pandemic disruption – not a surplus,” the study stated.
Net migration measures the difference between arrivals and departures. The report also highlighted that total migration movements—arrivals and departures combined—were down by 1.2 million compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“It’s people who have not left who we were expecting to leave [causing net migration growth], not because there are more people arriving or international students are overwhelming us,” Gamlen explained.
Policy Debates and Economic Impacts
The findings challenge claims of record-breaking migration levels. Opposition leader Peter Dutton has criticized current migration policies, pledging to cut migration numbers if elected. Meanwhile, the Albanese government aims to reduce net migration from 510,000 to 375,000 annually by mid-2024, with an eventual target of 260,000.
The government has introduced a ministerial direction prioritizing student visas based on citizenship to curb migration numbers, but this has drawn criticism. Education Minister Jason Clare described the approach as a “blunt” tool, disproportionately affecting universities in outer suburbs and regional areas.
Universities Australia CEO Luke Sheehy highlighted the economic repercussions, pointing to a decline in education exports from $13.6 billion to $12.4 billion in the September quarter. “International students drove half of Australia’s economic growth last year. It makes no sense to put a handbrake on a $50 billion industry,” Sheehy said.
Future Challenges
As Australia grapples with the long-term effects of pandemic disruptions, the debate over migration policies remains a contentious issue. Balancing economic recovery, skilled migration needs, and education sector demands with community concerns over population growth will likely shape the country’s migration strategies in the coming years.
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